With Washington having seemingly cooled to diplomacy in regard to ending Israel-Iran war, it is up to countries in the region to stop the conflict, suggests Sanam Vakil, the Director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program..
Vkil, in his opinion published by Foreign Affairs, added “Only the Arab states and Turkey, after all, have good working relations with Israel, Iran, and the United States. Now, these countries must come up with de-escalation proposals. They need to set up a regionally run mediation initiative that allows them to speak with and act as a broker between the warring parties. They will still have to involve Washington. But they cannot depend on it.
Should the Arab countries and Turkey fail, the war will regionalize. They could well face attacks on their infrastructure by Iran. And fear and uncertainty will spread among their peoples.
For years, Arab governments have regarded both Iran and Israel as troublesome countries. Iran’s ideological expansionism, advancing nuclear program, and support for proxy militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, as well as the former Assad regime in Syria, have long made it a threat to its neighbors.
For the Gulf countries, Iranian attacks on U.S. bases, Gulf energy infrastructure, or ships in the Strait of Hormuz would be a disaster. They would jeopardize oil exports and destroy investor confidence, derailing their carbon-dependent economies and undermining other economic endeavors, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative.
They could also worsen the conflict in Yemen, where the rebel Houthis would likely resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea and direct strikes against Gulf states. Civilian Arab populations would suffer from any attacks that threatened food supplies, contaminated water, or led to cyber-disruptions. Acutely aware of the risks they face, these countries are becoming increasingly desperate to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Vakil concluded that “Achieving a peace agreement will be extremely difficult. Iran and Israel are entrenched in their respective positions. The conflict appears to be heating up, not cooling down. Yet the world desperately needs a serious, sustained diplomatic effort at de-escalation. That effort must involve Iran and Israel and must be supported by the United States. But it can only be led, or at least catalyzed, by states in the region.