The May 6 cease-fire between the United States and the Tehran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen has had a consolidating effect on the balance of power inside the war-torn state and hardened the status quo of the country’s civil war, according to an analysis published by the Middle East Institute website.
Eleonora Ardemagni, the author of the analysis, an analyst focused on Yemen and the GCC states, who is a Senior Associate Research Fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), found that last month’s halt in the high-intensity US air campaign against the Houthis, code named "Operation Rough Rider", has played into the rebels' hands, buying them time to repair infrastructure damage and reorganize its forces.
In contrast, Ardemagni suggested that the cessation of US-Houthi hostilities may have negative consequences for the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
Even more significantly, the post-cease-fire situation undermines the pro-secessionist- but formally unified with the central government- Southern Transitional Council (STC), whose forces would be the most capable of fielding a ground offensive against the Houthis, as demonstrated in the past.
Effect of on the Houthis the cease-fire with the US
Due to the cease-fire with the US, the Houthi rebels can now focus on three interconnected issues, all useful to strengthen and, possibly, to extend their territorial control.
First, they can work on repairing the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes on major port and airport infrastructure in their controlled areas (first and foremost, Hodeida and neighboring ports in the Red Sea along with Sanaa's international airport) to facilitate the resumption of revenue flows and weapons deliveries and reorganize and redeploy troops where necessary.
Second, they can exploit their narrative of “victory through resistance” against the US — as they did with Saudi Arabia following its 2015-22 military intervention — to further boost internal mobilization and recruitment.
According to United Nations estimates, the number of Houthi fighters grew from nearly 220,000 in 2022 to 350,000 in 2024.
Third, the cease-fire could enable the Houthis to deepen an emerging strategy of “alliance diversification.” The rebels has achieved heightened visibility since 2023 by attacking ships in the Red Sea, threatening international trade, and then ostensibly bringing a global superpower to the table to negotiate a truce.
Effect on Yemen’s internationally recognized government: The stalemate exacerbates economic and political crises
The internationally recognized government of Yemen based in Aden and the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), its eight-member executive body established in 2022, have much to lose in the context of the US-Houthi cease-fire.
The current power balance risks further fueling internal divisions as Yemen’s economic crisis escalates, with the Saudi-backed PLC chair, Rashad al-Alimi, still unable to exercise effective leadership over all of the institutional and military arms of the state.